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Muse, Ben. 1990. "A Preliminary Forecast of the 1991 Entry Permit Value for the Southeast Alaska K49A Permit". CFEC Report Number 90-10. Alaska Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission. Oct. 1990. 9pp.


This paper describes the use of an econometric model of Alaska limited entry permit prices to forecast the average price of the Southeast Alaska pot permit for red and blue king crab and Tanner crab, in 1991. This is the K49A permit. Two approaches were taken to estimate a price for this permit. The first produced a point estimate of about $79,000. The second produced a range of possible prices from about $87,000 to about $91,000. This method of forecasting permit prices is new and experimental. The paper discusses some of the issues associated with it.