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Muse, Ben. 1990. "Forecasts of 1990 Entry Permit Values for the Cook Inlet Salmon Seine Fishery". CFEC Report Number 90-2; CFEC March, 1990.


This report describes six econometric models which were developed to predict 1990 Cook Inlet salmon seine prices. The point forecasts from the models ranged from 42,000 to 121,000. Based upon statistical properties and prediction errors, model 1 was chosen as the best of the six. This model explained permit values using variables which represented lagged average gross earnings in the fishery over the past three years, and dummy variables for the different salmon fisheries (except for the power troll fishery, therefore the intercept is interpreted as the base power troll case) used in the regression. The point forecast for 1990 from the model was $119,000.