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Muse, Ben. 1990. "An Experimental Forecast of the 1990 Entry Permit Value for the Southeastern King and Tanner Crab Permit". CFEC Report Number 90-4. Alaska Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission. March, 1990. 3 pp.


This paper describes the use of an econometric model of Alaska limited entry permit prices to forecast the average price of a Southeastern Alaska red/blue king, brown king, and Tanner crab pot permit in 1990. The basic model was estimated using data from several limited salmon and herring fisheries for which time series data on permit prices are available. The model attempts to "explain" a permit's value in the current year using season length, adjusted average gross earnings in the fishery for each of the previous three seasons, and crew size as explanatory variables.

Two approaches were taken to estimate the value of this permit. The first produced a point estimate of about $161,000. The second produced a range of possible values from about $114,000 to about $195,000.

This method of forecasting permit prices is a new and experimental procedure. The paper includes a discussion of some potential problems.