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Muse, Ben. 1990. "An Experimental Forecast of the 1990 Entry Permit Value for the Southeastern Alaska Red and Blue King and Tanner Crab Pot Permit" CFEC Report 90-8. Alaska Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission. September, 1990. 8pp.


This paper describes the use of an econometric model of Alaska limited entry permit prices to forecast the average price of the new Southeast Alaska permit for red and blue king crab, and Tanner crab, in 1990. Two approaches were taken to estimate a price for this permit. The first produced a point estimate of about $72,000. The second produced a range of possible prices from about $72,000 to about $81,000. This method of forecasting permit prices is new and experimental. The paper discusses some of the issues associated with it.