III. GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF PERMITS, TRANSFERS AND MIGRATIONS

Alaska's commercial fisheries are extremely important to the state's economy, especially in rural communities where fishing provides the major source of employment and income. In this portion of the report, both statewide and fishery-specific information is provided on the effects of permit transfers and migration of permit holders on the permit holdings of each residency type.

Classification of Permit Holders

In order to measure the changes in the distribution of permits, permit holders have been classified into broad categories according to where they reside. Langdon1 divided a fishery's permit holders who were residents of Alaska into those who had domiciles which were "local" and those which were "nonlocal" to the fishery. He further defined Alaskan domiciles as "rural" or "urban." Non-Alaskans were lumped into a single "nonresident" category.

As Langdon's conceptual categories are a useful way to examine the geographic distribution of permits, they have been used in this report. These resident types and are defined as follows:

Alaska resident of a Rural community which is Local to the fishery for which the permit applies (ARL);

Alaska resident of a Rural community which is Nonlocal to the fishery for which the permit applies (ARN);

Alaska resident of an Urban community which is Local to the fishery for which the permit applies (AUL)2 ;

Alaska resident of an Urban community which is Nonlocal to the fishery for which the permit applies (AUN);

Nonresident of Alaska (N);

Department of Commerce signifies permits which have been foreclosed upon by the state (DOC) or of the Commercial Fishing and Agriculture Bank (CFAB).

Combinations of these resident types are also used in this report. In some cases, ARLs and ARNs will be combined into a "rural" category; AULs and AUNs into an "urban" category; ARLs and AULs into a "local" category; ARNs and AUNs into a "nonlocal" category; and ARLs, ARNs, AULs, and AUNs into an "Alaskan" category.

The numbers of Alaskans and Nonresidents presented in this report may differ from other CFEC publications (specifically CFEC Annual Reports) because a more conservative residency definition is used. For this report, to be classified as an Alaska resident, a permit holder must have sworn that they are an Alaskan resident on permit renewal or transfer forms, and they must also have provided an Alaskan address. (Annual Reports produce resident/nonresident totals based upon the residency status from the permit renewal form only.)

The decision rules for designating urban and local classifications are described in Appendix A. Essentially the rural/urban distinction is based on a population size of 2,500 or more as of the 1990 census, which is a departure from the 2,000 level used in the pre-1990 editions of this report. Details of the conversion to 1990 census data were outlined in the 1990 edition. Some communities with populations less than 2,500 are classified as urban because they lie on a road system and are within a certain radius of an urban center. For instance, Auke Bay is designated as urban, even though it has a small population, because it is situated on a road system and is within 20 miles of Juneau.

The local/nonlocal distinction is primarily based on the Alaska Department of Fish and Game's salmon administrative areas, with special arrangements for certain inland communities local to fisheries in areas such as the Yukon River and Bristol Bay. A thorough description of local/nonlocal decision rules can be found in Appendix A.

The choice of definitions of "rural" and "local" may affect the results of this analysis. For instance, there are 42 Alaskan cities used as resident addresses by permit holders which are defined as urban according to the decision rules used in this report. Ten of these cities had populations between 2,500 and 4,000 as of the 1990 census and are further than 20 road miles from an urban area. These communities are Seward, Nikiski, Kotzebue, Palmer, Unalaska, Petersburg, Barrow, Nome, Homer and Sterling.

If different decision rules had been used which caused these cities to be classified as rural, the number of rural permit holders at year-end l994 would have increased by 1,191, and the number of rural permits initially issued would have increased by 944. Annual counts of year-end permits held by persons residing in these particular cities as well as in all other Alaskan urban communities are provided in Table 1 of Appendix A.

Prior to l978 the resident type classifications are based on the address provided to CFEC by the permit holder during the issuance, renewal and transfer processes. During those early years, some Nonresidents listed an Alaskan address and were classified as Alaskan residents. After l978, CFEC renewal and transfer forms included a sworn declaration of residency, and resident/nonresident data have become more accurate in later years.

Beginning in l982, permit renewal forms included space for both a permanent address and a temporary mailing address, but for the l975-198l period there was only one address on the form. In some cases, this address may actually have been a temporary mailing address on the fishing grounds and the permit holder could have been mistakenly classified as local to the fishery. The number of fishermen who have been misclassified because of this problem is unknown; however, this source of error appears to be fairly small3 and from l982 forward temporary mailing addresses should not be a major cause of erroneous resident classifications.

Geographic Distribution of Initial Issuees

Hardship ranking systems, or "point systems," based upon past participation and economic dependence were developed for each fishery and used to allocate the original permits. The resulting distribution of both transferable and nontransferable permits among the resident types appears in Table 3.

Over all fisheries, Alaska residents received 81.6% of the initial allocation of permits and Nonresidents received 18.4% (11,479 and 2,585 permits, respectively) through 1994. Of the 12,399 transferable permits issued, Alaska Rural Local applicants received more permits than any other resident type (6,017 permits or 48.5%). The Alaska Urban Locals received 2,752 permits (22.2%) and the Nonresidents received 2,438 permits (19.7%). Less than 10% of the transferable permits were issued to the combined Alaska Rural Nonlocal (342 permits or 2.8%) and Urban Nonlocal resident types (850 permits or 6.9%).

The percentages of transferable permits issued to the resident types vary widely between individual fisheries or between groups of fisheries. For example, Alaska Rural Locals were issued 39.0% of the 8,012 transferable permits in the group of original l9 salmon fisheries, 80.1% of the transferable AYK salmon permits, 20.1% of the transferable permits issued in roe herring fisheries limited in 1977-1978, 39.8% of the transferable permits issued for fisheries limited in 1980-1987, and 79.7% of the transferable permits issued in the recently limited Westward roe herring fisheries.4

By the end of l994, the distribution of permits among the resident types had changed to the levels shown in Table 4. Alaska residents held 77.6% of all permits and Nonresidents held 22.4% (10,397 and 3,001 permits, respectively). At the end of 1994, 76.7% (9,553 permits) and 23.3% (2,900 permits) of the 12,461 existing transferable permits were held by Residents and Nonresidents, respectively. Eight transferable permits had been foreclosured upon by the Department of Commerce and Economic Development or the Commercial Fishing and Agriculture Bank and had yet to be transferred.

Changes in the distribution of permits to assigned residency types includes a 17.2% (1,134 permits) decrease in the total number of permits held by Alaska Rural Locals. At year-end 1994, Alaska Rural Locals held 52.5% of all Resident permits (5,458 out of 10,397) and 40.7% of the total permits (5,458 out of 13,406). Alaska Rural Locals held 53.5% (5,107 out of 9,553) of the transferable permits held by Alaskan residents and 41.0% of all transferable permits (5,107 out of 12,461). Generally, ARLs have experienced the largest percentage decreases of transferable permits in the fisheries which have been limited the longest.

The total number of permits held by Alaska Urban Locals decreased by 449 permits by the close of 1994. A large portion of this decrease was due to the retirement of 412 nontransferable hand troll permits, which were revoked due to the death of the permit holder or because the renewal fees were not paid for two consecutive years. The total number of permits held by Alaska Urban Nonlocals increased by 446 permits, a 48.0% increase, the largest percent change of any residency type. Alaska Rural Nonlocals and Nonresidents also increased their holdings of permits (15.2% or 55 permits, and 16.1% or 416 permits, respectively).

Geographic Changes in the Distribution of Permits Due to Transfer

The 20,611 transfers are organized into these categories in Table 5 and the actual numbers of transfers from one resident type to another are presented by year. Percents of the total number of transfers over all years are shown for each transaction type. The majority of all transfers in each year have been between fishermen of the same resident type. The annual percentage of intra-cohort transfers does not vary much on an annual basis and ranges from a low of 59.4% (1988) to a high of 69.8% (1976) and averaged 64.4% across all years.

The percentage of intra-cohort to cross-cohort transfers varies by resident type. Alaska Urban Locals have the highest proportion of intra-cohort transfers (70.4% of their transfers over all years) and Alaska Rural Nonlocals the lowest (38.1). Alaska Urban Nonlocals also show a lower than average rate of transfers to persons of the same resident type (52.5%). Alaska Rural Locals and Nonresidents have similar proportions of intra-cohort transfers (65.9% and 66.2%, respectively).

Information on the intra-cohort and cross-cohort transfers for each fishery, all years combined, is provided in Table 6. With few exceptions, the majority of transfers within each fishery have been intra-cohort.

The cumulative net results of cross-cohort transfers to each resident type, by fishery, are shown in Table 7. Note that if no transfers have occurred in a particular fishery, that fishery will not be listed on the table. By year-end 1994, the following changes had occurred in the distribution of transferable permits as a result of cross-cohort transfer activity:

1. Permits held by Alaska Rural Local residents decreased in about two-thirds of the listed fisheries, which resulted in a statewide net decrease of 728 transferable permits (12.1% of the 6,017 transferable permits originally issued to ARLs). The Bristol Bay drift and set gill net fisheries have had the largest numerical net decreases (351 permits combined) which represent 48.2% of the 728 permit decrease. This 351 permit decrease is 28.6% of the 1,227 transferable permits originally issued to ARLS in these two fisheries. The largest decreases in permits held by ARLs have been in the following fisheries: Prince William Sound drift gill net (73 permits), Southeast salmon seine (57 permits), and the Peninsula/Aleutian drift gill net fishery (54 permits). These decreases represent 21.6%, 53.8%, and 55.1%, respectively, of the transferable permits originally issued to Alaska Rural Locals in these fisheries.

2. Permits held by Alaska Rural Nonlocal residents increased by 33 permits due to net transfer activity (9.6% of the 342 transferable permits issued to this resident type).

3. Permits held by Alaska Urban Local residents increased by 48 permits due to net transfer activity (1.7 of the 2,752 transferable permits originally issued to this group). The largest net increases were in the Power troll (40 permits), the Kodiak salmon seine (39 permits) and set net (27 permits) fisheries. In contrast, the number of permits held by Urban Locals decreased in 17 other fisheries.

4. Permits held by Alaska Urban Nonlocals have increased by 421 permits, a 49.5% increase over the 850 transferable permits initially issued to this resident type. The number of transferable permits held by Alaska Urban Nonlocals has increased in 32 fisheries, especially the Bristol Bay salmon fisheries (170 permits), the Prince William Sound salmon fisheries (102 permits), and the Lower Yukon salmon gill net fishery (33 permits).

5. The number of permits held by Nonresidents increased by 218 permits statewide through net transfer activity, a 8.9% increase over the 2,438 transferable permits issued to them. The number of transferable permits increased in 22 of the fisheries, especially the Bristol Bay salmon fisheries (192 permits), the salmon hand troll fishery (61 permits), the Cook Inlet salmon set net fishery (42 permits) and Southeast salmon seine (27 permits).

In fourteen other fisheries the number of permits held by Nonresidents decreased, especially the power troll (74 permits), the Kodiak salmon seine (42 permits) and set net (26 permits), and the Cook Inlet drift gill net (19 permits) fisheries.

Migrations to and from each resident type for both transferable and nontransferable permits are shown in Table 8. In general, there appears to be considerable movement both to and from each resident type.5 In 1993 and 1994 there was less migration by permit holders than in recent years, especially since 1988. The net results of migratory activity to each resident type over the entire period are shown by fishery in Table 9. Note that some recently limited fisheries have had no migratory activity and are thus not listed in these tables.

The 1975-1994 geographical shifts in the distribution of permits due to migration can be briefly summarized as follows:

1. Statewide, the number of permits held by Alaska Rural Locals decreased by 243 permits due to migration. Migratory activities did not affect all fisheries in the same manner, however. There were ARL net decreases in 26 fisheries and ARL net increases in 9 others.

The number of permits held by ARLs decreased primarily in the AYK salmon fisheries (112 permits), the Bristol Bay set net fishery (37 permits), the hand troll fishery (33 permits), and the Prince William Sound salmon seine fishery (29 permits). ARL gains through migration were made in the Cook Inlet set net (19 permits), Chignik seine (16 permits) and Southeast drift gill net fisheries (11 permits).

2. The number of permits held by Alaska Rural Nonlocals increased by 30. Fisheries with high numbers of increases were the AYK fisheries (38 permits), the Kodiak salmon seine (10 permits) and the Bristol Bay set net fishery (10 permits).

3. The number of permits held by Alaskan Urban Locals decreased by 148. The decrease was primarily within the hand troll (41 permits), the Cook Inlet set net (34 permits), and the Kodiak salmon seine (36 permits).

4. The number of permits held by Alaskan Urban Nonlocals increased by 67. Permits held by AUNs increased by 65 permits within the AYK salmon fisheries and 30 permits in the hand troll fishery. However, there were net decreases with 13 other fisheries, particularly within the herring fisheries limited in 1977-78 (28 permits), and the Bristol Bay salmon fisheries (25 permits).

5. Alaska residents who moved out of state resulted in a net increase of 294 Nonresident permits. The Nonresident category shows net changes in the number of permits in 35 different fisheries, 30 of which indicate net increases. The largest net increases in permits held by Nonresidents appeared in the Bristol Bay salmon fisheries (81 permits), the Kodiak purse seine and set net salmon fisheries (56 permits), the hand troll fishery (41 permits), and the Cook Inlet salmon fisheries (42 permits). The Southeast drift gill net fishery was the only fishery where there was a large gain in the in the number of Alaska resident permits (20 permits).

A yearly summary of the net changes in the distribution of permits by resident type as a result of transfers, migrations and revocations is provided in Table 10. The cumulative effects of these changes are summarized below:

1. Alaska Rural Locals were issued 6,592 permits, (transferable and nontransferable, Table 3) through year-end l994, which represented 46.9% of all permits. At year-end l994, 5,458 (40.7%) of all permits were held by ARLs (Table 4). The decrease of 1,134 permits represents 17.2% of all permits originally issued to this group. Transfer activities account for 64.2% of the decrease (728 permits) followed by migration (21.4% or 243 permits) and revocations (14.4% or 163 permits).

The number of permits held by Alaska Rural Locals declined in nearly every year since 1977. Since 1987, migration of permit holders away from rural local communities has accounted for most of the decrease, whereas before this time transfers accounted for most of the decline.

2. Alaska Rural Nonlocals have been issued 363 permits through year-end 1994 (2.6% of all permits). By the end of 1994, the number of permits held by ARNs rose to 418 (3.1% of all permits). The increase of 55 permits represents a 15.2% increase over the number of permits originally issued to this group. The net increase comes mainly from transfer activity (33 permits) but migration also accounts for much of the gain (30 permits).

3. Alaska Urban Locals received 3,595 of all permits issued through 1994 (25.6% of all permits). They held 3,146 permits at year-end 1994 (23.5% of all permits), a decrease of 449 permits. Revocations of permits have been the major factor in this decrease (349 permits). Most (412) of the revocations have been in the hand troll fishery and were due to either the death of a nontransferable permit holder or the forfeiture of permits for nonpayment of permit renewal fees.

The fact that transfer activities show a net increase in Alaska Urban Local permits is due to large gains in the years 1975 through 1981, 1979 excepted. Beginning in 1982 and continuing through 1994, transfer activities have had a negative impact on the number of permits held by Alaska Urban Locals.

4. Alaska Urban Nonlocals received 929 (6.6%) of all permits issued through l994. At the end of l994, the number of permits held by AUNs had risen to 1,375 (10.3% of all permits). The increase of 446 permits represents a 48.0% increase over the number of permits originally issued to this group. Transfer activities have been primarily responsible for the increase, with net increases shown in nearly every year since 1978.

5. Nonresidents received 2,585 of all permits issued through 1994 (18.4% of all permits). By the end of 1994, 3,001 permits were held by Nonresidents (22.4%). The 416 net permit increase represents a 16.1% increase over the number of permits originally issued to this group.

Annual net changes in the number of permits held by Nonresidents due to transfer and migration have fluctuated widely. The recent net change from 1986 through 1994 has been influenced more by migration (303 permit increase) than by transfer (55 permit increase).

Appendix C documents initial issuance, transfer, migration, and revocation of permits by fishery and by year for each of the resident types. An in-depth analysis of the movements of permits from Alaska Rural Local permit holders and from the Alaska Local permit holders (combined group of Alaska Rural Locals and Alaska Urban Locals) will be presented in subsequent chapters of this report.

TABLE 3. Total Number of Initial Permit Holders, by Fishery and Resident Type, 1975-1994*

TABLE 4. 1994 Year-end Distribution of Permit Holders by Fishery and Resident Type*

TABLE 5. Numbers of Transfers Between Resident Types by Year, 1975-1994

TABLE 6. Numbers of Intra-Cohort and Cross-Cohort Transfers By Fishery, 1975 - 1994*

TABLE 7. Net Shifts in Resident Types Due to Transfer Activity by Fishery, 1975-1994

TABLE 8. Numbers of Cross-Cohort Migrations by Year, 1975-1994

TABLE 9. Net Shifts in Resident Types Due to Migration Activity, by Fishery, 1975-1994

TABLE 10. Statewide Summary of Annual Net Changes in Permit Distribution, by Resident Type, 1975-1994